Pumpjacks draw oil out of the ground in a canola field near Olds, Alta., Thursday, July 16, 2020. One year after oil prices crashed to their first and only negative close during a perfect storm of energy demand bad news, Canada’s oilpatch is poised to report a first-quarter gusher of cash flow thanks to a dramatic recovery in global demand. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Pumpjacks draw oil out of the ground in a canola field near Olds, Alta., Thursday, July 16, 2020. One year after oil prices crashed to their first and only negative close during a perfect storm of energy demand bad news, Canada’s oilpatch is poised to report a first-quarter gusher of cash flow thanks to a dramatic recovery in global demand. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

One year after crude turned negative, oilpatch relishes first-quarter profit outlook

Expectations are high for the Canadian oilpatch’s first-quarter results season

One year after oil prices crashed to their first and only negative close during a perfect storm of energy demand bad news, Canada’s oilpatch is poised to report a first-quarter gush of cash flow thanks to a dramatic recovery in global demand.

On April 20, 2020, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate near-month contract price ended the day down a whopping US$55.90 at an unprecedented –$37.63 per barrel.

The negative close was caused by a mix of technical commodities market factors and concerns about oversupply as storage tanks grew dangerously close to full amid a collapse in demand fuelled by pandemic lockdowns and short-lived price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, said senior commodity analyst Martin King of RBN Energy in Calgary.

“Everyone was very, very negative on oil and oil demand,” he recalled in an interview, adding the remarkable level of stabilization since shows how resilient the oilpatch can be.

“So the market essentially wound up balancing itself out and we had a recovery from the depths of hell to not quite to heaven in terms of current prices, but certainly a very large scale recovery.

“Those two forces of supply and demand were brought back into a much better balance and with the demand recovery we’re seeing this year, we’re seeing inventories worldwide get drawn down to more normal levels.”

On Friday, the WTI price settled at US$63.19 per barrel, a level at which most production in North America, including in the Alberta oilsands, is profitable, said King.

WTI daily spot prices have averaged US$60.46 per barrel so far in the second quarter, up from US$58.13 in the first quarter. Both are a far cry from the US$27.95 per barrel average in the second quarter of 2020.

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency raised its world oil demand estimate for 2021, pointing to further signs that the global economy is recovering faster than previously expected, particularly in the U.S. and China.

It now expects world oil demand to expand by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 to 96.7 million bpd, following a collapse of 8.7 million bpd last year.

Expectations are high for the Canadian oilpatch’s first-quarter results season, which starts Monday after markets close with PrairieSky Royalty Ltd., several analysts who cover the sector said in reports over the past week.

“Emerging from one of the worst cycles in recent memory, we believe the sector is now positioned in some of the healthiest ranks,” says a report from analysts at National Bank Financial.

“The survival mode necessitated and forced companies to reconsider capital spending habits, dividend policies, acquisitions and divestitures, cash cost management, and operational practices. Combined with the much-improved macro backdrop, the sector finds itself in an enviable position to deliver meaningful free cash flow at current price levels.”

RBC analyst Michael Harvey, who covers intermediate-sized oil and gas companies, said in a report that he expects first quarter cash flow per share for oil-weighted producers will be 39 per cent higher quarter-over-quarter, while gas-weighted producers will report a 45 per cent rise, “driven by broad strength in commodity prices.”

The end of Alberta’s mandatory crude quota program in December means that oilsands producers will show a “significant uptick” in production in the first quarter, said CIBC analysts in a report. Canada’s discount to the U.S. benchmark oil price is likely to shrink in April and May, the CIBC report said, as planned maintenance shutdowns take at least 500,000 barrels of western Canadian crude per day offline.

The analysts expect the cash stockpiles to be used for debt reduction and balance sheet repair after a year of COVID-19 induced shock, rather than a rush into capital spending, although they expect a recent consolidation trend to continue.

That’s consistent with the message presented by Alex Pourbaix, CEO of oilsands producer Cenovus Energy Inc., who said earlier this month the company would use expected higher oil prices this year to pay down debt in the wake of its $3.8-billion takeover of Husky Energy Inc.

“We are going to be basically paying all of our free cash onto our balance sheet until we get to $10 billion (in net debt) but ultimately I’d like to get significantly lower … something in the range of $8 billion,” said Pourbaix at an investor symposium.

“As we move from 10 to eight, we’ll start to consider returning cash to shareholders or maybe modest growth.”

Dan Healing, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Coronavirusoil and gas

Just Posted

The first Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine dose in Canada is prepared at The Michener Institute in Toronto on Monday, Dec. 14, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn
One death, 39 new cases of COVID-19 in Interior Health

There are 484 active cases of the virus in the region currently

A health-care worker prepares a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at a COVID-19 vaccine clinic in Toronto on Thursday, January 7, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
65 new cases of COVID-19 in Interior Health

Overall, B.C. is seeing a decrease in COVID-19 cases

FILE - In this April 19, 2021, file photo, Keidy Ventura, 17, receives her first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in West New York, N.J. States across the country are dramatically scaling back their COVID-19 vaccine orders as interest in the shots wanes, putting the goal of herd immunity further out of reach. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)
5 more deaths, 131 new cases of COVID-19 in Interior Health over the weekend

Those 18-years and older in high-transmission neighbourhoods can register for the vaccine

A medical worker prepares vials of the COVID-19 vaccines, Chinese Sinopharm, left, Sputnik V, center, and Pfizer at a vaccine centre, in the Usce shopping mall in Belgrade, Serbia, Thursday, May 6, 2021. Serbian authorities are looking for incentives for people to boost vaccination that has slowed down in recent weeks amid widespread anti-vaccination and conspiracy theories in the Balkan nation. The government has also promised a payment of around 25 euros to everyone who gets vaccinated by the end of May. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
38 new COVID-19 cases, more than 335k vaccines administered in Interior Health

Interior Health also to start targeted vaccinations in high transmission neighbourhoods

FILE PHOTO
Second doses of COVID-19 vaccine will be available, as AstraZeneca supply runs low: Interior Health

Province expecting large volumes of Pfizer BioNTech as age-based cohort immunization program ramps up

B.C. Labour Minister Harry Bains in the B.C. legislature, May 13, 2019. (Hansard TV)
VIDEO: B.C. to provide 3 days of sick pay for COVID-19 absences

Province will support employers on cost, labour minister says

BC Housing minister David Eby. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito)
Eby jabs back against Penticton mayor’s ad urging BC Premier to intervene in shelter dispute

Eby writes that Penticton’s ‘serious’ social issues won’t improve under leadership of the mayor

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry updates B.C.’s COVID-19 situation at the B.C. legislature, April 29, 2021. (B.C. government)
B.C.’s COVID-19 rate creeps up again, 600 new cases Wednesday

One more death, 423 people in hospital with virus

B.C. Agriculture Minister Lana Popham takes questions in the B.C. legislature in 2017. (Hansard TV)
UPDATE: B.C. will fund another year of fresh fruit, vegetables, milk in schools

John Horgan government working on school meal program

Surrey RCMP is releasing sketches of a suspect in an “indecent act” at the Coyote Creek Elementary playground on April 30, 2021. Police said the suspect was clean-shaven “during some interactions” and on “other occasions had stubble outlining a goatee and mustache.” (Images: Surrey RCMP handout)
Vancouver mayor-elect Kennedy Stewart addresses supporters in Vancouver on Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
Vancouver mayor says there’s no time to redo details of drug decriminalization plan

Kennedy Stewart says a federal election could see the small window of opportunity close on the city’s bid for an exemption from criminal provisions on simple possession of small amounts of drugs

Premier Mike Horgan received his first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. (Facebook/John Horgan)
More than 50% of people eligible in B.C. have received 1st vaccine dose

‘We’ve made extraordinary progress together over the past few weeks,’ says Premier Horgan

Brad MacKenzie, advocacy chair for the ALS Society of B.C., says having research projects in the province allows people here to have access to cutting-edge treatments now being developed. (B.C. government video)
B.C. funds research chair for Lou Gehrig’s disease at UBC

Pandemic has cut off patient access to international projects

Most Read