Extensive flooding this spring, although still possible, appears unlikely, according to the province’s River Forecast Center.
Snowpack levels in the North Thompson watershed were 101 per cent of normal as of April 1, according to the center.
The overall Fraser Basin index also was 101 per cent.
Throughout the province, snow basin indices were at or near normal (90 – 110 per cent).
Modelling from the U.S. National Weather Service forecast the persistence of the current neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions into the summer. Typically neutral ENSO years do not favour wetter or drier conditions in British Columbia.
Forecasts for April through June from Environment Canada indicate a high likelihood of above normal temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the province, and a small likelihood of cooler than normal temperatures in the northern part.
Forecasts indicate a higher likelihood of drier than normal April-June conditions along the southwest Coast and southern and central Interior of the province. Forecasts do not indicate any strongly favoured seasonal precipitation conditions through the rest of the province.
The River Forecast Center noted that snow pack is only one element that influences whether flooding occurs during the spring freshet. Of critical importance are how the snow melts as well as how much, and when, precipitation is received during the snow melt period. Weather during the melt season is the key driver that determines if flooding will occur or not.