The strategy behind the Paris attacks

The supporters of the young French terrorists are a minority everywhere

After Ahmed Merabet, a French policeman, was killed outside the Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris last week, his brother Malek said: “My brother was Muslim and he was killed by two terrorists, by two false Muslims. Islam is a religion of peace and love.”

It was moving, but to say all Muslims who commit cruel and violent acts in God’s name are “false Muslims” is like saying the Crusaders who devastated the Middle East 900 years ago were “false Christians.”

The Crusaders were real Christians. They believed that they were doing God’s will.

They believed they were doing God’s will in trying to reconquer the formerly Christian lands that had been lost to Islam centuries before — and they had the support of most people back home in Europe.

Similarly, Said and Cherif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly believed they were true Muslims doing God’s will — and some people in Muslim-majority countries agree with them.

But, there is an important difference from the Crusades: The supporters of the young French terrorists are a minority everywhere and, among Muslims living in Western countries, they are only a tiny minority.

Seventeen innocent people killed in Paris is not the equivalent of the Crusades. For that matter, neither were the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. These are wicked and tragic events, but they are not a war.

There is a war, but it is a civil war within the House of Islam that occasionally spills over into non-Muslim countries.

As foot soldiers in that war, the three killers in Paris probably did not fully understand the role they were playing, but they were serving a quite sophisticated strategy.

Two of these Muslim civil wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq, were ignited by U.S.-led invasions in 2001 and 2003. Four other Muslim civil wars — in Syria, Libya, Yemen and the northern, mostly Muslim half of Nigeria — have been in effect since 2011.

Others go back even further, like the war in Somalia, or have flared up and become dormant again, as in Mali and Algeria.

In every one of these wars, the victims are overwhelmingly Muslims killed by other Muslims.

From time to time, non-Muslims in other countries are killed — as in New York in 2001, in London in 2007, in Bombay in 2008 and last week in Paris — and these killings do have a strategic purpose, but it’s not to terrify non-Muslims into submission.

Quite the contrary.

The great Muslim civil war is about the political, social and cultural modernization of the Muslim world.

Should it continue down much the same track other major global cultures have followed or should those changes be stopped and indeed reversed? The Islamists take the latter position.

Some aspects of modernization are attractive to many Muslims, so stopping the changes would require a lot of violence, including the overthrow of most existing governments in Muslim countries. That is the task Islamists in general, and jihadi activists in particular, have undertaken.

As they are minorities even in their own countries, the Islamists’ hardest job is to mobilize popular support for their struggle. The best way to do this is to convince Muslims that modernization — democracy, equality, the whole cultural package — is part of a Western plot to undermine Islam.

This will be a more credible claim if Western countries are actually attacking Muslim countries, so one of the main jihadi strategies is to carry out terrorist atrocities that will trigger Western military attacks on Muslim countries.

That was the real goal of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and it was spectacularly successful as it tricked the U.S. into invading not one, but two, Muslim countries.  However, smaller terrorist attacks that lead to the mistreatment of the Muslim minorities in non-Muslim countries also serve the cause.

They can create a backlash that victimizes the local Muslim minorities, thus generating yet more “proof” there is a war against Islam.

There will be more attacks like the ones in Paris, because lost young men seeking a cause abound in every community, including the Muslim communities of the West.

We can’t arrest them all, so we will live with a certain amount of terrorism from Muslim and non-Muslim extremist groups and try not to over-react — just as we have been doing for many decades already.

* Dyer is a freelance columnist  for Kamloops This Week



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